Thomas Jefferson is apocryphally reputed to have said “every man has two countries – his own and France.” Alas, like most things that are too good to be true, our third President and author of the Declaration of Independence, did not say or write this. It is actually a line spoken by Charlemagne in a late 19^th century French play by Henri Bornier, La Fille de Roland, that was first performed a half century after Jefferson’s death in 1824. Though in fairness, Jefferson did say in his memoirs that if didn’t live in the US his second choice would have been France where he had, of course, served as the US Minister Plenipotentiary after the Revolution.

More recently President Trump has invoked recent developments in France to warn Americans against voting in his opponents noting that when they see “burning steeples and raging fires in France,” they should remember that “is what the radical Democrats want to do to America.” Trump’s view was echoed by Pennsylvania Senator David McCormick who, in the before times, would have been seen as a perfectly “normie” Republican.

The protests that have wracked France for more than a month have become a kind of Rorschach test for the right-wing media ec(h)o-system which has looked on at the protests, the police response, and the occasional scenes of shocking violence (looting of stores, burning of the City Hall in Limoges, the vandalization of at least one synagogue) and concluded that this is a “red-green” alliance of ultra-leftists and Islamist activists whose aim is nothing less than the destruction of western civilization.

There is a surface plausibility to this description since the protests, which began as student-teacher demonstrations protesting the pretty deplorable conditions of France’s secondary education system, have been egged on by Jean Luc-Melanchon, the former Trotskyite, later Socialist Party functionary who heads La France Insoumise (the leading left-wing political force in the country). For the moment, the polls show him as the most likely opponent for Marine Le Pen, the far-right politician currently leading the pack of would-be Presidents in the election to take place in spring 2027. Moreover, the original protesters have been joined by the so-called “black block”: a group of mask-wearing anarchist protesters clothed in dark apparel whose mission is to smash the state by instigating violence, arson, and looting (in which young protesters from largely immigrant neighborhoods have been happy to join in). Moreover, the anti-Israel, pro-Palestine signs that seem to be de rigueur at any protest these days have made their inevitable appearance.

But, well-informed observers of France see a much more complex set of phenomena at work and since France’s election may well be a harbinger for Europe’s future direction it is worth taking the time to unpack a bit of what seems to be going on.

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Marco Rubio has heretofore avoided breaking the norm against Secretaries of State and National Security Advisors engaging in explicitly partisan political activities during an election campaign (as Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Attorney General Todd Blanche have repeatedly done). It appears that he is about to do so, or at least walk the line in an uncomfortable way, when he appears with President Trump in Texas to welcome an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude oil to be refined in one of the key swing states in this year’s contest for control of the United States Senate. The appearance will be at Port Arthur. Later in the day Trump will hold rallies in Corpus Cristi and Lubbock and although it isn’t clear whether Rubio will appear with him at those events, the appearance at Port Arthur is close enough to a partisan act to violate the norm of non-partisanship since it is clearly meant to highlight one of the Trump Administration’s key accomplishments to the Texas electorate: bringing billions of dollars of Venezuelan oil to the U.S.

This move comes on the heels of Venezuela’s opposition leader, Nobel laureate Maria Corinna Machado’s triumphant return to her country on Sunday, where she was greeted by large crowds of well-wishers. One person who clearly wished her less well was the Secretary of State/National Security Advisor who issued a not-so-veiled warning against interfering with what one well-informed journalist described as “the country’s fragile democratic transition pushed by the Trump Administration.”

“You are not going to street protest your way into democracy” Rubio scolded. He and other Administration officials are extremely protective of what they regard as the most successful achievement of the Trump Administration’s foreign policy—removing Maduro from the Presidency of Venezuela and replacing him with the more pliant Delcy Rodriquez. They worry that Machado’s criticism of the failure to schedule elections as well as the oil deal that the Administration signed with Rodriguez could upset the applecart.

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Frank Miller and I have written a response to former Obama nuclear arms control negotiator Rose Gottemoller, whose article in the July/August edition of Foriegn Affairs proclaimed the “defeat of nuclear deterrence”. I thought Shield subscribers would enjoy:

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Eliot’s latest, THE STRATEGIST: How to Think About War and Politics is available today! As a reminder, paid Shield subscribers can take 30% off when ordering directly from Princeton University Press.

Below the paywall on this post you’ll also find a gift link to an excerpt/adaptation in The Atlantic:

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1:06: Jackassery of the Week
3:58: Annals of Corruption
6:51: Ukraine War Updates
22:54: Trump Endorses Bibi
29:04: Untangling the French Riots
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37:43: Katrina Manson on Project Maven

Project Maven: A Marine Colonel, His Team, and the Dawn of AI Warfare
https://a.co/d/0dWdDvHC

My frequent co-author, Frank Miller, and I have a new piece up in The Bulwark about Trump inviting Putin to the G20 Summit in December that I thought Shield subscribers might enjoy:

Vladimir Putin Doesn’t Belong in Florida

This is a free link for all Shield of the Republic subscribers. Paid subscribers also gain access to mailbag episodes, hot takes, gift links, and more!

Revolutionary Spring: Europe Aflame and the Fight for a New World, 1848-1849 (June 11, 2024)

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Yesterday evening, Eliot and I did a quick reaction to the terrible “deal” that President Trump allegedly struck with Russian President Putin on Friday during their hour and a half phone call. Today brought more disturbing developments: The Financial Times is reporting that over the weekend, in the wake of additional Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, unnamed US officials lobbied both Ukrainian and European officials and threatened to cut off US intelligence sharing with Ukraine and shipments of weapons contracted under the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (NATO’s mechanism through which European allies purchase US produced defense goods for use by Ukraine).

Put aside the fact that PURL does not cost the US taxpayer anything and that cancellation of contracts would cost US defense industry nearly 10 billion dollars (and presumably some of the jobs that go with production of the contracted items), these steps would simply facilitate Russian ongoing war crimes against Ukrainian civilians by leaving Ukraine with diminished ability to both defend against Russian attacks and respond with its own ongoing campaign against Russian war-making potential. While Ukraine raises the costs of Russia’s war effort by attacking oil refineries—a recognized legitimate military target, the Russians are engaged in ongoing attacks against private citizens and civilian infrastructure. Just in the past week, according to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) Russian attacks have reached “horrifying levels” with over 100 civilians killed and 429 wounded from Russian missiles and drones hitting public buses and residential apartment buildings. Attacks on critical infrastructure including electricity distribution, transit, and other targets ultimately threaten what a French diplomat called a “humanitarian crisis” as electricity, heating, and ultimately potable water are cut off.

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Signed bookplates are now available by request for THE STRATEGIST!

Bookplate Request Form

2:00: Jackassery of the Week
14:52: Annals of Corruption
20:36: A Dark & Immoral Spectacle
25:52: Burn After Reading
29:28: France’s Student Fracas
35:39: War in Ukraine Update
39:37: Middle East Wars Update
45:02: Ethiopia Continues to Spiral
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49:15: Discussing THE STRATEGIST: How to Think About War & Politics

Paid Shield of the Republic subscribers can take 30% off when ordering THE STRATEGIST from Princeton University Press!
https://www.shieldoftherepublic.com/p/special-offer-30-off-eliots-upcoming

The Strategist: How to Think About War & Politics
https://a.co/d/06Omof4b

As a reminder, for just $5 a month, paid subscribers gain access to mailbags, hot takes, book reviews, and more!

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1:20: Jackassery of the Week
19:35: New Operation Rough Rider Details Emerge
26:23: Saudi Offensive in Yemen
38:12: U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq
52:58: Ethiopian Conflict Update

It can be tempting to regard Secretary of Defense Hegseth as a buffoonish character. That underestimates his big, dangerous idea about the US military. Eliot discusses in his latest Atlantic article:

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Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has decided that civilian faculty at the military academies should not have tenure. The real message is worse than it seems:

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1:15: Jackassery of the Week
10:06: The Decline of the U.N.
17:13: Iran War Updates
40:57: Powder Keg: Horn of Africa
47:39: The Russian Threat to Europe

Danish Defense Intelligence Service Assessment of the threat from Russia:
https://www.fe-ddis.dk/globalassets/fe/dokumenter/2026/trusselsvurderinger/-assessment-of-the-threat-from-russia-.pdf

Email mailbag@shieldoftherepublic.com to submit questions for our next mailbag episode!

Knowing how many national security professionals listen to Shield of the Republic, Eliot would like to call your attention to the annual Basin Harbor, Vermont workshop on the changing character of war.

This year’s workshop will take place May 31 to June 4, and will deal with the subject of long wars. Information about the workshop and how to apply can be found here:

Changing Character of War Workshop

A House of Dynamite (2025, Netflix)

As a reminder, for just $5 a month paid Shield subscribers gain access to hot takes, book reviews, mailbag episodes, and more!

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